CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T23:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27897/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME centered to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is a filament eruption with liftoff starting around 2023-11-27T23:00Z in SDO AIA 304. The eruption may also be associated with a C5.5 flare from AR 3503 (approx. N15E30). The source signature is also visible as an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines in SDO AIA 171, and brightening with post-eruptive loops in SDO AIA 94. Post-eruptive loops are visible following a data gap in the NE quadrant in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME with the 2023-11-27T20:12Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T04:36Z (-5.56h, +7.89h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2023/11/27 23:40Z Plane of Sky 1: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 11:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction POS Difference: 6:40 POS Midpoint: 08:20Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:40 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.11 Travel Time: ~6.11 * 8:40 = 52:56 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-30T04:36Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5Lead Time: 48.10 hour(s)
Difference: 18.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-11-28T23:23Z
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